Boeing Update: Somehow, It Finds A Way To Disappoint
Boeing, somehow, is still a really disappointing company.
Let us start at the beginning.
Last year, we spent a lot of time talking about which companies you might want to exclude from your portfolio and why.
The whole idea was to basically demonstrate the many different reasons why you would want to do this. It is entirely a matter of personal choice, of course, but we thought that the panoply of choices wasn't widely known.
One of the easier and more enjoyable versions might be termed: "some companies just suck."
This happens pretty regularly - for all sorts of reasons. But it can be hard to put your finger on precisely why.
The simplest yet rather unsatisfying answer might be that a company loses its way over time. Regardless of why this happens, the end result is very clear: problems slowly accrue hidden from the public eye until some typically unexpected catalyst causes a massive crisis to erupt.
Then - and this the key point - successfully resolving the crisis seems to be nearly impossible. As you will see below, the CEO always seems to be crafting some ridiculous flight metaphor: "the storms clouds are clearing, next quarter will be smooth soaring with steady tailwinds"
Even worse, new crises then break out. These are often uncovered by the initial problem or the efforts to deal with it. These crises can combine and cause all manner of people, internally and externally, to gradually lose faith in the company and its products and a terrible death spiral commences.
Sadly, Boeing, the American airplane giant, was and remains a classic case here.
Though it is in line with our expectations it is firmly against our interests, our favorite target - Boeing - still really sucks.
You can find our previous work on Boeing here.
At the end of our coverage, we said that the stock would likely bounce rather significantly sooner rather than later. As the pandemic ebbed, travel would likely surge and airlines would come flooding back to the market for jets, airplane parts and upgrades.
The rather large Boeing defense business is also well positioned in an era of rising military budgets and outright conflict.
What we also said was that we weren't sure that any such bounce would necessarily be sustained. Inevitably, something new would come along to drag the airplane company backwards.
It was just very, very difficult to believe that Boeing might have actually fundamentally resolved the lapses, the shortcuts and the business culture that has clearly gone very wrong.
Well, the company reported earnings this week and, despite closing in on four years since the crashes that served as the initial launch point for what has seemingly become a never ending cycle of disappointments, Boeing managed to do it again.
Really every quarter is just more of the same. At this point a recantation of the precise reason why Boeing has disappointed this quarter is sort of pointless but the themes of this disappointment have stayed very consistent:
There is always an unexpected one off charge that, investors are solemnly assured, will not reoccur.
The company continues to hope that next quarter the FAA will give it approval to begin shipping a core product soon. In this case, the Dreamliner.
There is a new risk on the horizon that, regrettably, could smoothly take the place of an old risk and cause the company to be tardy in delivering its product to its customers. In this case, strikes.
The company insists that, despite rising debt and a surprise jump in expenditures, it will turn its operating cash flow positive this year.
To be fair to the company, its operating cash flow was positive for the second quarter. However there were also unexpected one-off charges and hits to revenues as well as disappointing (there is that word again) announcements.
Why?
Well, Boeing continues to struggle to get enough parts and engines to be able to build enough planes to hit their own internal targets.
They also keep incurring charges for the defense and space business as their Starliner capsule continues to have cost overruns and operational failures.
Their production of planes is rising but they also face the possibility of labor action breaking out at their main defense production plants.
Most amusingly, they are even struggling to deliver the 737 Max planes they have in storage.
Oh and the the company has pushed back the critical launch of its next passenger jet to 2025.
Here is Boeing's CEO, David Calhoun a year ago at this time:
"We are turning a corner, and the recovery is gaining momentum.”
And here are his remarks this week:
“I can’t measure it week by week or month by month or even quarter by quarter, but I know the year is going to be substantially better.”
It is just more of the same.
And the stock? Also more of the same. The share price still continues to disappoints its few remaining loyal owners. It is down ~24% vs the S&P 500's ~13% year-to-date and that in a time when, as these virtual pages have detailed, the airplane is rebounding hard and defense stocks of all types are one of the few financial market bright spots.
It is hard to know what to conclude about what really is an iconic American high technology and manufacturing venture.
It isn't just stockholders that need a great Boeing , it is travelers, airlines, suppliers, and governments the world over. This type of underperformance influences not just the company but also people's view of the US and its tradition of manufacturing prowess and engineering excellence.
This isn't just about the country's exports and GDP numbers, in other words. And what to do about it? Well, as we have argued before, the best way to send a message to the Seattle giant is not to own the stock.
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