We will be honest, it is hard to know what to make of Nancy Pelosi's, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, trip to Taiwan.​

Not for the want of trying but it has been incredibly difficult to ascertain why she is going, what the end result will be and how this makes strategic sense:

• for Taiwan,

• for the US,

• for the West

• and especially in the context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

Perhaps like you, we first heard about this trip weeks ago and thought it was quite a decision to make during a year when Western democracies are already struggling on multiple fronts, home and abroad.

This is especially the case when it comes to our stay united and resist Putin's aggression with sufficient commitment and conviction.

We held off writing about it because, as usual during this action packed year, there was plenty else to discuss and there was very little clarity on whether the third in line to the Presidency would actually be going.

Well, as you likely know, the Speaker went!

We have spent a lot of time fruitlessly trying to figure out why. You are welcome to read her opinion piece published in the Washington Post but it is hard to make much sense of that word salad and that is being exceptionally kind.

Here is the Speaker:

“this trip at a time when the world faces a choice between autocracy and democracy.”

Got it.

And also:

“In the face of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) accelerating aggression, our congressional delegation’s visit should be seen as an unequivocal statement that America stands with Taiwan, our democratic partner, as it defends itself and its freedom.”

Yeah, okay. This is pretty ephemeral stuff. The world knows something? Didn't the world know we stood with Ukraine as well? How is that going? And away from the broader picture there simply seems very little actual policy change to go on.

We aren't alone in our criticism either. Along with many others, The Economist called her trip "incoherent" which seemed like a pretty pithy summary for what is a really confusing decision.

So, we still aren't sure why Speaker Pelosi is going and we are even less clear why it took the US military three months to figure out it is a bad idea or why President Biden didn't call her directly to ask not to go.

But there are two things that we feel reasonably confident about:

1. The first is the most important and that is the fact this will not make Taiwan any safer or bring it formally any closer to the US. It is a symbolic demonstration and unless we are gravely mistaken, a foolish and poorly conceived one.

2. The second point is that we are already deeply enmeshed in a conflict with an aggressive, revanchist power that is critically important that the West stay resolute, united and, above all, focused on the task at hand. The only issue is that it is occurring in Eastern Europe, not East Asia.

The war in Ukraine is critically important and should be our primary focus right now.

Thumbing your eye at China might (?) make Speaker Pelosi feel good or resolute but it will accomplish very little - for human rights or pretty much anything else and it will certainly make various things far harder to accomplish - whether it be in Taiwan, Ukraine, or anywhere where we are trying to halt the tide of authoritarian interference.

Surprising no one, China launched a series of military drills and retaliatory economic measures and they will likely continue in the weeks ahead. There were also the predictable cyberattacks as well. I guess we will have to hope that no lives will be lost or other tragedies occur. Most importantly, it is highly unlikely that this will be it.

It isn't clear that, even if he wanted to, China's leader President Xi Jinping can let it this provocation pass. The level of nationalist furor and political dynamics at play may make it very hard for an undemocratic leader to risk appearing "weak." President Xi is hardly being coy either, as he remarked to President Biden in a recent conversation:

​"Those who play with fire, perish by it."​

We do wonder about his position, however.

China has told their population repeatedly that any such provocation would lead to an immediate and potent response. And it seems to us that it rather puts them in a corner vis a vis their own population doesn't it? Can they really do anything short of invasion that will satisfy a populace that has been weaned on "wolf warrior" diplomacy and tough talk for years?

This situation could be very bad for Taiwan (and beyond) but, as with Putin's catastrophic invasion of Ukraine, demonstrates, it could also be really bad for China (and Xi Jining).

The current tension could force Xi Jinping into an aggressive error of his own or it could actually demonstrate that a lot of the reflexive nationalism and large amounts of propaganda have real downsides for the CCP as well as Taiwan or Hong Kong.

Something to at least think about in the weeks of saber rattling ahead and, no, it certainly doesn't excuse Speaker Pelosi's trip. That would be quite a gamble to potentially achieve a strategic masterstroke. These types of risky, impulsive maneuvers were dumb under President Trump and are certainly dumb under the Democrats, at any level.

As Speaker Pelosi herself might remind us, just because you wear a pantsuit rather than a business suit doesn't mean you should have different standards.

In conclusion, the kindest word for this entire episode might be bizarre or maybe better yet, baffling. The House Speaker will almost certainly step down after the midterms and the soon to be plain old Nancy Pelosi seems to be trying to go out with a bang, literally.

But this gesture - and make no mistake, that is all it is - seems to be risking a lot for very little possible gain.

As we have stated above a few times, we are still not sure about whether there is some masterstroke that either we can't fathom or simply can't see right in front of our eyes.

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