The Midterm Event: US Election Season & Markets

This might surprise some of our readers but we do not have a strong bias about who you should vote for this US election season.

After all, it is both none of our business and in a non-Presidential year, pretty arrogant to assume knowledge, let alone insight, into the hundreds of down ballot races.

Our greatest conviction might be simply that everyone should vote. Take it seriously. Read more below to find out why.

We do have a strong (though rather conventionally boring) set of beliefs about what will happen (the Republicans will crush) and what matters to voters (inflation outmuscles nearly every other issue including abortion) and that we are very far from any sort of unifying moment where some (any?) of the contentious issues confronting America are being resolved decisively one way or another (sigh).

(Except for around China perhaps, which we will return to in a future week)

We do have a deeply held suggestion however. We strongly suggest that you vote not for a Republican or a Democratic United States of America but rather for a serious United States of America.

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It seems self-evident that the US has become, very regrettably, a deeply unserious country.

We should hurry to stress that this quality is not a monopoly of the left or the right.

Rather, a distinct lack of seriousness might be one of the few areas of impressive bipartisan agreement from coast to coast.

• A serious party does not push a bunch of unpopular and unorthodox economic policies and then, when the country's economy drives off the rails, decides to blame foreign powers. A serious (great) country isn't purely a victim of circumstances.

• Elsewhere, a serious political party does not lose an election and instead of conceding and constructively moving on, create an ever more complicated and absurd fictional fantasy about how the election was stolen. A serious country is not a Salvador Dali painting.

But the greatest symptoms of our deep un-seriousness are actually reassuringly bipartisan and broad based at that:

• A serious country does not spend multiple decades and multiple trillions of dollars pacifying a far off country only to suddenly and casually abandon it and watch while the country rapidly collapses into chaos all the while absurdly (there is that word again) declaring victory.

• A country does not let 300, mostly young, people die a day from a drug epidemic that rages far from the front pages. This number is far more than Covid for their age group and is a not-so-quiet epidemic initially launched from within its own medical establishment, pharmaceutical industry and public health institutions.

• A serious country does not let its institutions of higher learning - which teach many of the country's young elite - to become centers of illiberalism, racial quotas, thought police and official thought guidelines and unofficial censorship.

Doctor's harming patients, President's losing wars and declaring victory, schools dedicated to expanding knowledge but restricting it. These are all clear cut examples of deep decadence and un-seriousness.

Now, we do recognize that in the present environment it will be difficult to follow this advice. It might even be futile. The gradations between who is less serious may be very, very fine in many races and in others, impossible to know what the future will hold.

But make no mistake about it, it is critically important nonetheless.

So, even if you do not feel it is ultimately very possible at present, keep this concept close to heart and strive for seriousness always and be very tough on those who are not. The only way back from our present situation is to make it a very core priority and keep it there.

The quicker we get back to taking matters seriously the quicker we can start grappling with the really tough questions. This might not shock you but "stop the steal" and "Putin's price hike" or "words are violence" are actually sideshows to what really ails us.

The best thing about seriousness is that no matter your political leanings or values or priorities, there will likely be something very important to you that should be taken seriously.

Others are hopefully universal.

For that, you do not have to look any further than the next section. A serious country teaches its children to read.

​War isn't peace, freedom isn't slavery and ignorance is not yet strength, we hope.

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Have questions? Care to find out more? Feel free to reach out at contact@pebble.finance or join our Slack community to meet more like-minded individuals and see what we are talking about today. All are welcome.