Possible 2024 Theme: North Korean Aggression
We would also like to start introducing some themes for the new year in the next few editions.
One of the least pleasant and hardest to write about is North Korea.
It is unpleasant because almost all the possible developments will be negative. It is highly unlikely that the repressive, violent and truly awful Kim regime are going anywhere and, as we will argue below, their capacity and interest in causing harm is only rising right now.
The hermit kingdom is also difficult to analyze because it is simply very difficult to predict what such a closed and authoritarian regime might do. It is very hard even to know what the regime thinks about basic issues let alone what it will do about them.
The fact that it is difficult to predict doesn't do anything to how dangerous the North Korean regime is. They are extremely dangerous and only getting more so.
The examples of their bad behavior might surprise you.
Today, though it has garnered almost no notice at all - at least so far - many of the weapons used by Hamas in its atrocious October 7th attack were manufactured in North Korea.
The October 7th attackers used:
North Korean manufactured F-7 rocket propelled grenades.
Also a North Korean variant of the Kalashnikov assault weapon, the Type 58 self-loading rifle.
And Pyonyang's missile technology has directly contributed to the development of Iran's Shahab missiles that threaten Israel (and the US Army and its allies) throughout the Middle East.
It may even be the case that North Korea's military has advised Hamas on tunnel building based on their own lessons learned building under the DMZ on the Korean peninsula.
These weapons were likely originally supplied to Iran in a trade for Iranian oil but that fact underlines the unpleasant reality that North Korea's regime have quietly had a banner year and are likely looking forward to an even better 2024.
The reason is very simple: war.
North Korea loves global conflict because unlike nearly everyone else, they benefit greatly from it. If the business of America is business then you might equally say that the business of North Korea is war.
The conflicts in Ukraine and now Israel and Gaza/the West Bank have been tremendous for arms manufacturers around the world but no one has gained more relatively perhaps than North Korea.
A fracturing global system of trade with increasing sanctions and more conflict is ideal for very few countries but North Korea might be one of them.
The North Korean economy is woefully inadequate at just about everything but rudimentary arms production. However, those light arms, missiles, rockets and especially artillery shells are exactly what the Russian army is using in great quantities in Ukraine and also what equips the militias and terror groups funded by Iran's Republican Guard.
The growth in global conflicts has seen significant amounts of wealth flow into North Korea which will reliably be spent on.....more arms production.
Unlike most countries, the Kim regime feels no need to build hospitals or schools or invest in more productive capacity in other industries. There is just the need to build and sell more artillery shells for Russia's howitzers and Iran's RPGs. That is as far as the North Korean economy goes when it comes to exports.
The North Korea isn't just gaining in wealth and market share. It is also busily raising tensions with South Korea.
North Korea has moved heavy weapons to the border and has only been busy rebuilding tunnels, guard posts, listening stations and other military installations in the DMZ that were previously shuttered after diplomatic negotiations.
They are emboldened, in other words.
Aside from the interesting and unpleasant fact that North Korean tunnel building expertise is also likely to have helped Hamas in Gaza there is the fact that they are walking back from previous agreements and deescalations which is a bad sign for those hoping for calm on the Korean peninsula and beyond.
So, we think this should be on your radar as 2024 nears.
North Korea will likely sell more arms, gain more trading partners and sow more mischief around the world. That should be reason enough to stay focused and stop hoping that by making concessions to the likes of Kim or Putin that we will dissuade them from doing what we don't want.
It only encourages the exact opposite.
Being perceived as weak by your enemies is not a path to peace, prosperity or an easy life.
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