Not for thee.....

What does the fact that Germany is finally, maybe, hopefully, perhaps, provisionally, eventually agreeing to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine mean for the war, for the broader strategic effort to contain Russia and the rebirth of a serious and united West?

In short, we think this whole pathetic episode very clearly underlines a few important trends right now:

1. First, it emphasizes the fragility of last year's very welcome progress in the West (and especially Ukraine) resisting Russia.

2. Second, it reinforces the great difficulty and possible failure of Germany changing its spots (pun intended) in its infamous Zietenwende (or turning point) transformation to a new country.

3. Third, it stresses the very real problems that still confront liberal democracies in the 21st century. Much of Europe outsourced their security to the US for the last 70 years and that is no longer advisable or perhaps even possible.

Let us just hope that when Germany says they will finally send these heavy weapon systems they actually will - soon.

I wouldn't suggest the embattled Ukrainians holding their breath, that is for sure.

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To start it is important to say that "The West," broadly defined, had a good year. A terrible war in Ukraine had an unfortunate but undoubtedly positive side effect of re-forging Western unity and reinvigorating the NATO military alliance almost overnight.

It should never have required a full war on the European continent but the return of seriousness and real commitment to acting as a strategic collective was one of the few silver linings in an otherwise very tough year.

At a stroke, Western unity over Ukraine's terrible predicament not only revealed Vladimir Putin's huge strategic mistake but also gave heart to the idea that, though it may come at tremendous cost, many different countries and peoples intuitively understood what was at stake.

Liberal democracy is both important in an absolute sense but also relative to the cynicism and lies of illiberal authoritarians. This governing concept is not only worth stoutly defending but also worth sacrificing for.

It was, quite frankly, pretty heartening to see.

But it is equally vital to remember that these positive developments, real as they may have been, are incredibly fragile and there are plenty of countervailing political factions, economic pressures and social forces equally hard at work to undo them.

​Just this week a German citizen was arrested and accused of helping pass along classified intelligence to Russia.​

And no one should overestimate the US's own political unity in sending billions and billions of dollars every few months to aid Ukraine. It was telling that Germany only finally, maybe, agreed to send Leopards after the US agreed to send their own M1-Abrams tanks.

The idea that, in 2023 as a war rages, the US should be more committed to European security than major European states is quite a mind boggling situation.

Rather than thinking we have successfully come together to resist authoritarian aggression we might be better suited to thinking we are at the very outset of a long and slow climb back to strategic relevance and geopolitical deterrence.

To frame it more practically, are we finally at a place where a bully like Putin would think twice before embarking on a similar foreign adventure?

Nothing has underlined the fact that he might not more clearly than the pathetic year-long debacle over the will they/won't circus over sending German-made Leopard Tanks to Ukraine.

The issue is pretty simple:

• Ukraine needs these weapons.

• Eastern European countries have them and are very willing to send them but require German permission to do so.

• And Germany has been "studying the issue" for months.

The biggest problem is not that Germany hasn't sent them. It is the signal that their waffling and delaying and absolutely maddening circular reasoning has sent to the Kremlin.

The most incredible fact about the German position isn't just that there is a significant gap between their rhetoric and their policy. It is that their under-delivering isn't happening in a vacuum.

As with the lack of unity in the lands of men in Tolkien's Lord Of The Rings, Germany's behavior is being keenly watched around the world. It is most welcome in the least welcoming of places.

Nothing will encourage Putin to prolong the war than believing that Western unity is fragile and Western politicians' speeches are just empty words more than Germany's lack of commitment.

This isn't new either. It is beyond stunning for us to reflect that we first covered the Leopard issue in JUNE.

At the time we mentioned that the "will they, won't they" aspect of the heavy weapons and tanks had already reached farcical levels.

Here is what we wrote in the summer.

The heavy weapons are a particularly striking and bitterly amusing microcosm of the overall German approach.

• At first Germany wouldn't send them.

• Before the war they also banned Estonia and other countries from sending Ukraine their own

• Then it wouldn't send German heavy weapons but would replace central and Eastern European neighbors' weapons that were sent.

• Then in early May, the government reversed course and said it would send heavy weapons, including tanks but they have yet to mysteriously show up. The German government claims unavoidable delays, during a war, in Europe.....

• The latest seems to be that the tanks will be there in July but ammunition is low.

It is enough to make you seriously question not only that Germany will change but whether they can. It might simply be beyond this group of elites, politicians and policymakers.

It is evident that, despite a war raging a few hundred kilometers from their borders, they still don't get it.

It is funny to think about it now but, at the time, we felt a bit conflicted about our position.

On the one hand we couldn't believe that the Germans were doing it again: saying all the right things and struggling to even come close to doing what they themselves had promised.

On the other we wondered if we had not been a bit tough on Germany.

Maybe we were the typical overconfident Anglo Americans who are both convinced that they are right AND could only think about the issue from our corner.

You can read about the rest of it here:

Fast forward eight - 8! - months and we must sadly conclude that we were, if anything, far too kind in our earlier assessment.

That alone is all you need to know and truly an awful situation.

Thus question increasingly is not:

• Will Germany get more serious in their transformation towards a new paradigm of international relations and their place in the world.

but rather:

• What will happen if Germany does not embrace the role Europe and the West needs them to inhabit?

For now all of this will likely just prolong this conflict.

That is the easiest and most depressing takeaway from the whole drama.

It didn't have to be this way.

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